The Random Formation of Life is Mathematically Impossible.
By Pd Michel © Copyright 2019
Evolution is taught by saying things like. “A light-sensitive spot appeared on an organism, and over millions of years, it evolved to be more and more complex until it had eyes.” The idea sounds plausible. But how plausable is it? DNA received the 1962 Nobel prize. But genes weren’t sequenced until decades later, and there was no way to look at it more deeply, until recently.
We now routinely sequence the genome and look at the complex biochemicals in the cell that allow it to function. At the heart of every cell is DNA. DNA is composed of four nucleobases, Guanine (G), Cytosine (C), Adenine (A), and Thymine (T).
These four DNA bases allow us to use mathematics to determine the probability of the first life forming.
In strict mathematics, impossible is defined as when the probability is zero. Except in strict mathematics, it is hard to find something with a zero probability. Slight variations in any real-world system can cause errors and unknowns.
But there is another definition that is used by scientists, engineers, and many mathematicians. Impossible has also been defined as having such a low probability as to not be meaningful of consideration in a rational argument. What is a low enough probability to not be meaningful?
There is a wide range of expert opinions as to what is considered impossible. The smallest probability I have observed to define impossible is less than 1 in 1080. This happens to be the total number of atoms in the universe. Anything less probable than randomly picking one correct atom from all the planets, all the stars, all the galaxies, all the rocks, nebulas, dust and debris in the universe we will consider impossible.
Now that we have defined what is impossible, we can show whether the random formation of the DNA code is possible.
There is a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a given number on a six-sided dice. There is a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a second dice and getting a given number. So the the odds of getting two numbers correct are1/6 x 1/6 = 1 in 62. The number of rolls needing to get a string of numbers correct increases the exponent.
You will notice that the light sensitive spot was already on an organism. So where did the first organism come from? Could the simplest organism have formed randomly?
We don’t have to analyze every part of the cell. We only have to show one part is impossible to prove the whole is impossible. At the core of each cell is DNA.
The bacteria Mycoplasma Genitalia (MGen) is generally considered the simplest natural cell that performs all the functions necessary for life. It has 525 genes coded by 580,070 base pairs. Base pairs hold the four letters of the DNA alphabet.
The probability its DNA formed randomly is 1 in 4580,070 = 1 in 8.693 x 10349,236. Since 1 in 1080 is impossible. This is astronomically impossible.
Nasuia Deltocephalinicola has the simplest genome of all sequenced bacteria, with 112,091 base pairs and 137 genes. The probability of it randomly occurring is 1 in 4112,091 or 1 in 1.02 x 1067,485. It can only live in a symbiotic relationship inside a bacteriome inside an insect. It doesn’t produce all the proteins it needs to exist on its own, so it can’t be the first cell, but even it is over sixty thousand orders of magnitude less probable than our definition of impossible.
So how simple would the DNA of the first cell have to be to be possible? 1 in 1080 is 4133. 133 is less than the number of genes in MGen. It is even less than the number of genes in Nasuia,
MGen averages over 1100 base pairs per gene. Nasuia averages over 800. 4800= 10481. So random formation ofeven an average gene on the simplest bacteria known is 400 orders of magnitude less probable than randomly picking one correct atom from all the planets, all the stars, all the galaxies, all the rocks, nebulas, dust and debris in the universe.
If every atom of the universe was a DNA string, we would have 1080 strings. It would change the probability by 80 orders of magnitude.
A common argument is that we have eons for life to randomly form. The Big Bang theory estimates the age of the universe to be 4.35 x 1017 seconds. If our genetic string varied every second, we would have less than 1018 variations. This modifies our calculations by 18 orders of magnitude. Let’s speed it up and have it change every millisecond, microsecond, nanosecond, or picosecond. Even using a trillion changes every second only lowers our calculations by 30 orders of magnitude. The difference is still insignificant compared to the tens or hundreds of thousands of orders of magnitude of a simple cell forming.
Another argument says that there are other equivalent versions of the genes. We have to make assumptions since we don’t know how many variations exist. Nasuia is 1 in 1067,485. It has 137 genes. Even using a million possible variations (106) for each gene, only changes our DNA by 6 x 137 = 822 orders of magnitude
Using all these together Nasuia has 1080 x 1030 x 10822 = 932 orders of magnitude off our probability. It, still leaves an impossible 1 in 1066,533 for Nasuia. or 10349,236 – (80 +30 + 525×6) = 10345,976 for MGen.
Any logical person has to conclude that the DNA of the first functioning cell forming randomly has such a low probability as not to be meaningful of consideration in a rational argument. It is mathematically impossible.
Estimated atoms in the universe 1080
Impossible probability 1 in 1 x 1080
800 base pair gene 1 in 10481
Nasuia deltocephalinicola 1 in 3.2 x 1067,485
Mycoplasma Genitalia 1 in 8 x 10349,236
Information derived from:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasuia_deltocephalinicola